A fantastic article by Steve Denning, evaluating Roger Martin’s new book called “Fixing The Game.”

In fact, a CEO has little choice but to pay careful attention to the expectations market, because if the stock price falls markedly, the application of accounting rules (regulation FASB 142) classify it as a “goodwill impairment”. Auditors may then force the write-down of real assets based on the company’s share price in the expectations market. As a result, executives must concern themselves with managing expectations if they want to avoid write-downs of their capital.

[…]

“It isn’t just about the money for shareholders,” writes Martin, “or even the dubious CEO behavior that our theories encourage. It’s much bigger than that. Our theories of shareholder value maximization and stock-based compensation have the ability to destroy our economy and rot out the core of American capitalism. These theories underpin regulatory fixes instituted after each market bubble and crash. Because the fixes begin from the wrong premise, they will be ineffectual; until we change the theories, future crashes are inevitable.”

It’s an interesting follow on to Helen Coster’s Forbes piece on New York’s new corporate legal structure, benefit corporations, or L3Cs.

Benefit corporations should receive greater legal protection for activities that help society, but hurt their financial performance. So if a benefit corporation decides to pay higher wages to overseas workers—and its profits drop—the company should, in theory, be insulated from shareholder lawsuits. 

Hi Andras,

Unfortunately I don’t have any additional information than that which is publicly available on their website and other public sources. 

You can find that info here: http://www.bms.com/research/pipeline/Pages/default.aspx

Kind regards,

Angela

Yes, there are people who think the way to stop poor presenters from wasting people’s time is to attack the presenting software. You’d think they’d have a better designed and more intuitive website.

What follows is an interesting attempt (via Miss Celania) to solve the age old Buddhist anecdote: “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?”. According to Wikipedia, this is a philosophical riddle that raises questions regarding observation and knowledge of reality.

While thoroughly entertaining, I have a major problem with the methods utilized in this research. In quantum theory, the mere act of observing a process changes it (see entanglement). So, it is possible that by placing audio devices in the forest to capture the sound of falling debris, the author changes the environment and invalidates the results. 

I don’t know the answer philosophically, but mathematically, until someone or some instrument captures information, the falling trees make and don’t make a sound at the same time.

Or not…

The Sound-ness of Tree Falls

By Miss Cellania in Improbable Research on Jun 21, 2011 at 5:15 am

(Image credit: Flickr member Jorge Orte Tudela)

by Martin Melchior
Stream Ecologist
Lake Mills, Wisconsin, USA

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound? Many have treated this as a philosophical question, with little to show for their efforts. I, on the other hand, see it as a practical question that can be answered by careful observation and measurement. With the help of an assistant and several sub-assistants, I have answered the question.

The research was conducted in the Chequamegon and Nicolet National Forests, in the state of Wisconsin.

My results show two things. First, that if a tree does fall in the forest, and no one hears it, it does indeed make a sound. Second, that while out-of-state recreationalists mispronounce the name “Chequamegon” in 75% of cases, Wisconsin residents mispronounce the word in only 62% of cases. I also learned the scores of some hockey games. Here are the details.

Large Woody Debris
Large woody debris (LWD) plays an important role in stream habitat, for fish, macroinvertebrates and other forest dwellers. A fairly thorough search of the scientific literature turned up no existing data concerning the sound of falling LWD in forests.

Gathering the Sounds
I used directional microphones, professional electronic audio recording equipment, personal observation, and some very inexpensive young assistants, to monitor the accumulation of large woody debris in old-growth forests of northern Wisconsin from June 1999 through July 2001.

I hired an impoverished undergraduate student to collect nearly 20,000 hours of audio/video tape in scenic areas in the Chequamegon and Nicolet National Forests. Video footage was collected with a Hitachi Z900 video camera and audio data was collected using a Shure SM58 microphone and three Shure DM 25 directional microphones with parabolic collector dishes. Recordings were made on a Tascam 850 8-track digital recorder and Yamaha 16-channel mixing board.

I made this impoverished undergraduate watch all of the tapes and make a record of every instance in which large woody debris fell to the forest floor.

(Image credit: Flickr member Gavin Golden)

 
A team of undergraduate sub-assistants was employed to monitor the equipment from a Chevy van parked outside the National Forest boundary. Decibel tests were made just outside the van to make sure that the sub-assistants couldn’t hear any actual trees falling, as that would have interfered with them hearing the transmitted sounds (or lack of sounds) of other trees falling or not falling elsewhere.

Observation times and decibel values for events were correlated with field reconnaissance of the actual debris. Video footage and audio footage were reviewed, and fallen trees were verified by personal observation and measurement.

Numbers, Data, Figures, Statistics, Figures, Data, Numbers
Through the efforts of my assistant and sub-assistants, I collected over 20,000 hours of video/audio tape. Twenty incidences of large woody debris falling were recorded, including the fall of two entire trees. The remaining incidences were really large branches, which if you stood them upright, could pass for trees in the judgment of some observers. In order to do proper statistical analysis, I created some additional data and included that too.

Decibel levels were adjusted based on the distance of the incident from the microphone. Using the inverse square law and some other plausible mathematical equations, I transformed the data, presenting the decibel level as it would sound to a person standing 20 feet from the impact point. I tried to remove the trend line from the graph but my Excel spreadsheet program wouldn’t let me do it. Each falling LWD event did show a positive decibel reading, and I found good correlation (R2=0.789) between LWD length and decibel level. (See Figure 1.)

Figure 1

Data collection took place near the Chequamegon National Forest boundary.

I encountered a number of people, and observed that many of them pronounced the name “Chequamegon” incorrectly. To analyze pronunciation of the word “Chequamegon” (it should be pronounced “Shuh-wa-muh-gun”), I recorded how each of them pronounced the word, and I also inferred each individual’s home state from the information displayed on their car license plates.

In technical terms: I treated the proper pronunciation as the “original condition,” and a mispronunciation as the “treatment condition.” I will not again refer to these technical terms.

Later, listening to the voice recordings, I recorded the approximate spelling of the mispronounced words, using the Franklin phonetic method of English pronunciation. Jaccard’s Coefficient (first described by an investigator named Jaccard, in 1912), a qualitative community comparison index, was used to assess differences in the syllables present.

Both Wisconsin natives and non-residents were asked about their feelings regarding mispronunciation. (See Table 1.)

I also collected and recorded the box scores from that weekend’s National Hockey League (NHL) games. I gathered this data using a radio and a pencil. A computer was used to reduce the NHL data to table form. (See Table 2.)

Results
In any discussion of falling trees and the sounds they make, it is important to define the term “sound.” I define sound to mean a compression or fluctuation of air molecule density and location that can be interpreted by a device that measures that compression or fluctuation.

Sound levels were found to be inversely proportional to the distance from the microphone. It is indeed possible that although a sound is made, people may not hear it, because decibel levels may be below the threshold of human hearing. My results show the following:

1. I discovered that, in every instance that I was able to monitor, when large woody debris falls in the forest and there is no one there to hear it, it does make a sound.

2. I discovered that many people, natives as well as visitors to the region, mispronounce the word “Chequamegon.” To assure the statistical significance of this finding, I included mention of it approximately three times in this report.

3. I also discovered that one of the five NHL games resulted in a tie score.

(Image credit: Flickr member Micky Zlimen)

Discussion 
Some of this information could be used to monitor the accumulation of large woody debris near streams, and could serve as an ice-breaker at parties of the kind where people like to argue about whether a tree makes a sound if it falls in the forest and nobody is there to hear it. I have previously observed that if you talk about science at a party, people will flock to you if it is the kin of party where people like to argue about whether a tree makes a sound if it falls in the forest and nobody is there to hear it.

_____________________

This article is republished with permission from the May-June 2010 issue of the Annals of Improbable Research. You can download or purchase back issues of the magazine, or subscribe to receive future issues. Or get a subscription for someone as a gift!

Visit their website for more research that makes people LAUGH and then THINK.

Carl King shares his thoughts on The Introvert Advantage (How To Thrive in an Extrovert World), by Marti Laney, Psy.D.. An interesting take on the 25% of us who fall into the Introvert personality categorization in the Myers-Briggs Test.

A section of Laney’s book maps out the human brain and explains how neuro-transmitters follow different dominant paths in the nervous systems of Introverts and Extroverts. If the science behind the book is correct, it turns out that Introverts are people who are over-sensitive to Dopamine, so too much external stimulation overdoses and exhausts them. Conversely, Extroverts can’t get enough Dopamine, and they require Adrenaline for their brains to create it. Extroverts also have a shorter pathway and less blood-flow to the brain. The messages of an Extrovert’s nervous system mostly bypass the Broca’s area in the frontal lobe, which is where a large portion of contemplation takes place.

Unfortunately, according to the book, only about 25% of people are Introverts. There are even fewer that are as extreme as I am. This leads to a lot of misunderstandings, since society doesn’t have very much experience with my people. (I love being able to say that.) So here are a few common misconceptions about Introverts (I put this list together myself, some of them are things I actually believed):

Myth #1 – Introverts don’t like to talk. This is not true. Introverts just don’t talk unless they have something to say. They hate small talk. Get an introvert talking about something they are interested in, and they won’t shut up for days.

[…]

Myth #4 – Introverts don’t like people. On the contrary, Introverts intensely value the few friends they have. They can count their close friends on one hand. If you are lucky enough for an introvert to consider you a friend, you probably have a loyal ally for life. Once you have earned their respect as being a person of substance, you’re in.

Myth #5 – Introverts don’t like to go out in public. Nonsense. Introverts just don’t like to go out in public FOR AS LONG. They also like to avoid the complications that are involved in public activities. They take in data and experiences very quickly, and as a result, don’t need to be there for long to “get it.” They’re ready to go home, recharge, and process it all. In fact, recharging is absolutely crucial for Introverts.

Head over to Carl’s blog for the full list, and read the book if you want to understand “us.”

This seems like a wonderful marriage of Information Architecture (offline), Strategy, and Behavioral Science. Awesome!

The car door clunk

A car door is essentially a hollow shell with parts placed inside it. Without careful design the door frame amplifies the rattling of mechanisms inside. Car companies know that if buyers don’t get a satisfying thud when they close the door, it dents their confidence in the entire vehicle.

To produce the ideal clunk, car doors are designed to minimise the amount of high frequencies produced (we associate them with fragility and weakness) and emphasise low, bass-heavy frequencies that suggest solidity.

The effect is achieved in a range of different ways – car companies have piled up hundreds of patents on the subject – but usually involves some form of dampener fitted in the door cavity. Locking mechanisms are also tailored to produce the right sort of click and the way seals make contact is precisely controlled.

On average it takes 1.8 seconds to close a car door but in that time you’re witnessing a strange kind of symphony composed by engineers and designers whose goal is to reassure you that its rock solid.

Instead of being given stock, he’s buying stock! Maybe that’s how financial incentives should work!

As a demonstration of his confidence in J. C. Penney’s long-term potential, Mr. Johnson requested and has committed to make a personal investment of $50 million in the Company through the purchase, at fair market value, of 7 1/2-year warrants on 7.257 million shares of J. C. Penney Company stock. The warrants cannot be sold or hedged for the first six years of their term and have a strike price of $29.92, the closing price of the stock on the business day prior to Mr. Johnson’s commitment to purchase the warrants.

Old anecdote, recently rehashed at neatorama.com. Interesting to see the discussion at the bottom, as some commenters point out the “elegant” fan solution would not have been found had it not been for the “complex” solution. 

Reminds me of the anecdote about a million dollars spent on a research initiative to develop a pen that could write in zero-gravity environments for American astronauts. This version of the story is a confirmed Urban Legend, but I’ll continue. As the story goes, this highlights wasteful spending, as the Soviets eleganty decided to simply use pencils. Anyone who uses this anecdote to illustrate the elegance of simple ideas neglects to think about the impact graphite particulates would have in the contained breathing space of a space module. 

The true story, as always, is more complex.

Sweet!

The cognitive enhancement across the life span of a bilingual person is quite dramatic. It turns out that something as ordinary as speaking a couple of languages reconfigures the brain network in a way that positively affects certain things that brains do.

So it’s not just useful for thoroughly confusing my friends when we have dinner with my parents!

Always nice to read pieces like this. 

YAY! Biostatistics funnies!

Oldie but goodie…

…being mislead by the nefarious capitalist drug peddling lords.

How is selling medications to human beings who have received the highest level of education worse than being a banker, explaining the different capital instruments a person needs to evaluate in order to be able to retire comfortably? Both can, and often are, done honorably. 

The difference being, of course, that there is STRINGENT regulation as to HOW drug sales representatives can paint a picture of how a drug acts or what it is, as opposed to the information available on automobiles or alcohol or financial instruments. Moreover, a sales representative is assured to have an educated audience with at least a graduate degree as well several years spent on internships, residencies, and fellowships. 

Still, doctors, lawyers, lobbyists, and regulators are often believed to have no free will, or ability to judge and make decisions based on information given by sales representatives.

Jamie Reidy, who wrote the book “Hard Sell” about his days as a drug rep for Pfizer, described it like this: “An official job description for a pharmaceutical salesperson would read: ‘provide health-care professionals with product information, answer their questions on the use of products, and deliver product samples. An unofficial, and more accurate, description would have been: Change the prescribing habits of physicians.” 

OF COURSE sales representatives are entrusted to change prescribing behavior. They are sales people.

Does anyone believe for a millisecond that a sales representative of a telecommunications provider has any other professional purpose than to change the behavior of potential subscribers, converting them from “potential” subscribers into “actual” subscribers? 

Perhaps the slickest tactic I’ve heard about is when a drug rep convinces the doctor to grant him a “preceptorship.” This is where the rep shadows the doctor during office hours to watch how and what he decides to prescribe. In the movie [“Love and Other Drugs”], Gyllenhaal’s character dons a white coat and follows Hank Azaria’s character (Dr. Stan Knight), prompting patients to believe he’s an intern. In truth, I hadn’t ever seen a drug rep try this. But Reidy’s book illuminates the whole shady business, right down to the $500 Dr. Knight receives from Pfizer for doing it.

In the above example, I find a few things disturbing. 1) that a doctor accepted to have a self-described sales person participate in his daily activities, 2) that a doctor allowed said sales person to wear a white coat, 3) that a doctor then prompted patients to believe said sales person was as intern, 4) that a doctor accepted payment for allowing said sales person to participate in said activities, and 5) that said doctor then believed to be remain impartial in his prescribing behavior. What bothers me is that, somehow, in the above example, the fault lies with the sales representative of a pharmaceutical company. What really bothers me is that, in the above account, the narrator readily admits never having seen this actually take place in any venue other than a moving picture!

Please note I am not addressing DTC advertising, then neither are the Salon article or the Pew research. This will be fodder for another article.

♖

NOTE: all info in this blog is original research or experience and does not make use of confidential information or insight arrived at during past or current projects.

HBR recently interviewed Ricky Gervais. Even having heard him speak candidly before on past interviews, I’m still amazed at how practical and pragmatic his opinions and suggestions are. Highlights below:

“Winston Churchill said ‘if you find a job you really love you’ll never work again,’ and that’s what it feels like. I was a very lazy person, unambitious, a slacker. Did what I wanted, but now I feel I’m a workaholic because of the privileged position I find myself in.”

[…]

“Money’s never excited me. I’ve never done anything for a million pounds that I wouldn’t have done for free.”

[…]

“I think fairness is the most important thing in managing a team, I really do.”

[…]

“[Collaboration is] twice as fun, which makes it easier…but there’s a compromise, which is bad. The best things are a single vision, so you’ve got to find a single vision between the two of you.”

Full article comes out in April’s issue.

Note: NSFW language.

The Strange Powers of the Placebo Effect (via TheProfessorFunk) 

On McKinsey:

• Will Rajat Gupta Destroy McKinsey? 
• Unwanted attention for a discreet firm 

On Monitor Group:

• US Consulting Group Working for Libya Did Not Register as Foreign Agent 
• Arab Unrest Puts Their Lobbyists in Uneasy Spot

I see this infographic as something fantastic. Something that is bringing to light a real issue: that women as young as 30 should seriously evaluate their health in order to avoid heart disease. 

I do not see it as an attempt by the marketing department at GE, makers of medical diagnostics products, to deceitfully expand their customer base.